2024 Fantasy Football Draft Prep: Rankings risers and fallers, what we've learned from preseason (2024)

There are a lot of things that happen in the preseason that we would be better off ignoring. The difficulty is in knowing what those things are. One thing we should not ignore is trends in ADP and rankings because that can lead to a false sense of security on Draft Day. We want to know not just where a player has been available, but where they are likely to be available. We also want to know who is trending in the right direction when it comes to rankings, even if that can change in a moment's notice. With that in mind, here are some of my risers and fallers since the start of the preseason:

Preseason Risers

I've written extensively about a few of my risers in the past month. For example, early in August, I wrote about how I was moving Jayden Daniels and Caleb Williams up due to their upside. Nothing that's happened since has changed my mind about that move. A couple of weeks later I again wrote about Daniels and Williams in my Breakouts 3.0, which also included an explanation of why Rashee Rice was my biggest preseason riser. Long story short, it looks far less likely Rice will be suspended and he has dominated routes and targets when Patrick Mahomes has been on the field this preseason. He may just be a top-12 wide receiver this season.

One riser I am not sure I have written enough about is Javonte Williams. Despite rumors this summer than Williams may get cut, he has functioned as the clear RB1 this preseason for the Broncos. It now looks like Samaje Perine will be the Broncos back who leaves town, with Williams and Jaleel McLaughlin sharing most of the running back work. I currently have Williams projected for 278 touches, 1,203 scrimmage yards, and seven touchdowns. That makes him RB18, and I don't believe that's an upside projection. Current CBS PPR ADP shows Williams as a Round 7 pick, but he's rising fast and I wouldn't count on him lasting that long. You should feel comfortable drafting him Round 6, there's plenty of room for profit there.

Other Risers: Kenneth Walker III, David Montgomery, Jordan Mason, Malik Nabers, Brian Thomas Jr., Rome Odunze.

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Preseason Fallers

Half of my preseason fallers fall under the same label: The Pittsburgh Steelers. I was appalled by their inability to block anyone resembling a starting NFL pass rusher, I was disgusted by their three-man rotation at tight end that has turned Pat Freiermuth into a part-time player, and I'm more than a little concerned about Jaylen Warren's hamstring tweak, though he does say he will be ready for Week 1. The only Steeler who didn't fall this preseason was Najee Harris, but that's only because of Warren's tweak. I'm pretty much done targeting Russell Wilson as a QB2, and I have replaced Freiermuth with Dalton Schultz when it comes to my favorite late-round tight ends.

The one guy who I'm not done drafting is George Pickens. As long as Brandon Aiyuk doesn't ruin his parade, Pickens is the clear alpha in this offense and has a chance to finish as a top-12 WR. I have dropped Pickens outside of my top 20 because of floor concerns, but his ADP has dropped as well. As long as Pickens is available in Round 5 I am interested. If he falls to Round 6 like he has in some drafts, everyone should be interested.

Other Fallers: Deshaun Watson, Kendre Miller, Christian Kirk, Marvin Mims.